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| #376289 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010 THE EYE OF JULIA HAS BEEN APPARENT INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1912 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EYE...DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. JULIA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JULIA MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3-5...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS THE JULIA VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME...THE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN JULIA AND THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...JULIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE IGOR TO THE WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS CYCLE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.2N 33.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 20.6N 35.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 22.6N 38.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 24.3N 42.4W 95 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 45.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 49.6W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 34.0N 49.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 36.0N 45.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
