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| #376360 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 AM 16.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 100 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 ...KARL MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 91.2W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OVER WATER WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM ...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
