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| #376398 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 16.Sep.2010) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 91.6W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 15NE 15SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 91.6W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 93.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.7N 94.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 91.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
