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| #37640 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 05.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER HARVEY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A VERY TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION QUICKSCAT. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. AS ANTICIPATED...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING AND HARVEY IS MEANDERING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS. WITH A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES THE WESTERLY FLOW BY 48 HOURS OR SO. HARVEY SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 32.4N 58.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 32.9N 57.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 56.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 35.5N 56.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 45.5N 39.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
