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| #376734 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 17.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010 JULIA IS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 75 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT JULIA...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS LGEM AND SHIPS. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF IGOR. LATEST CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND IS NOW 285/17. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED UNEXPECTEDLY FAR TO THE WEST...LIKELY BECAUSE THE STEERING EFFECTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH WERE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS...JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 24.2N 46.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 25.8N 48.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 28.3N 51.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 30.9N 52.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 33.2N 51.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
