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| #376737 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 17.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 ...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...AT THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE CENTER OF KARL AFTER LANDFALL. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
