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| #376820 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 17.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 ...KARL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FASTER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 96.6W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. KARL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
