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| #376849 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:37 PM 17.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 ...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
