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| #376887 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 17.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 KARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY WEAKENED. THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY DISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 18.6N 97.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 18.1N 98.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
