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| #3771 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:55 AM 04.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 LAST RECON FIX...AT 0505Z...HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT THE SAME AS SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING THAT ALEX IS HOLDING ITS OWN. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH...ALONG WITH THE COLD WATERS...IS THE BASIS FOR THE PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY OUT TO 5 DAYS...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY VERY WELL HAVE MERGED WITH A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY THAT TIME. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/16. ALEX IS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT THAT WILL BE INCREASING IN VELOCITY AS THE HURRICANE REACHES HIGHER LATITUDES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 37.1N 71.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 38.2N 68.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 39.8N 63.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 42.0N 58.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/0600Z 45.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/0600Z 45.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0600Z 48.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
