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| #37725 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 05.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 HARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE. HARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND AN EXPANSION OF THE CIRCULATION AS A NEW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THEREFORE...HARVEY WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THIS PERIOD. HARVEY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 57.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 32.9N 56.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.1N 55.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.1N 54.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 38.0N 53.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1800Z 42.0N 47.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1800Z 45.9N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
