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| #377326 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 19.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010 SINCE THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF JULIA HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. AMSU AND ASCAT ESTIMATES FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS MORE STRONGLY SHEARED. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECREASING T-NUMBERS. THE STATISTICAL MODELS STILL SHOW QUICKER WEAKENING THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. JULIA WILL BE BATTLING VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF IGOR IN 48 HOURS. AFTER TAKING A SUDDEN AND QUICK JUMP TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...JULIA HAS SETTLED ON A MOTION OF ABOUT 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND GFDN SEEM TO UNREALISTICALLY TURN JULIA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OTHER MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 34.8N 49.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 35.4N 48.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 36.3N 46.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 37.7N 44.4W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
