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| #377394 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 19.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010 JULIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A POORLY ORGANIZED BAND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT...USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. JULIA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER 25 C WATERS BY THAT TIME...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. A 1958 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A 2307 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIA...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/11...USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 35.2N 48.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 36.8N 45.7W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 21/1200Z 38.0N 43.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
