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| #3776 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:49 AM 04.Aug.2004) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST WED AUG 04 2004 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE ...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...WEST ST. LUCIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. THE AIRCRAFT MAY FIND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN WAVE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS TODAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 61.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
