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| #377711 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 21.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010 IGOR CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THUS...IGOR IS AGAIN MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE LATER TODAY...WITH SOME BAROCLINICALLY-INDUCED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/36. IGOR...OR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER DURING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 72-96 HR. EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL-STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THAT PROVINCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 42.8N 55.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 46.7N 51.3W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 22/0600Z 52.3N 48.4W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 22/1800Z 56.7N 48.3W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 23/0600Z 60.5N 52.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 24/0600Z 62.5N 59.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 25/0600Z 64.0N 61.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
