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| #378830 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 26.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MATTHEW HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NO WINDS HIGHER THAN ABOUT 15 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER LAND RECENTLY...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0340 UTC INDICATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 25 KT. VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP MATTHEW AS A DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MUCH LONGER...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWING DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. MATTHEW...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS. EVEN THOUGH MATTHEW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DEPRESSION AND ITS REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.3N 91.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 92.7W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 93.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 27/1800Z 17.4N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
