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| #3795 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 04.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 ALEX IS STILL A HEALTHY CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...WITH GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 77 KT FROM SAB...AND RECENT 3-HOURLY OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ALSO SUPPORT 77 KT. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED ONLY TO 75 KT. THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT AN ESTIMATED 065/17. STEERING BY A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT SHOULD FORCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST. ALEX IS CURRENTLY OVER SST NEAR 26C...BUT IN A DAY OR TWO THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...ABOUT 20 C..AS THE HURRICANE ALSO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THEREFORE...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 37.7N 69.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 38.8N 65.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 40.6N 60.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 43.1N 53.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/1200Z 45.2N 44.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/1200Z 45.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/1200Z 46.5N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1200Z 50.5N 6.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
