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| #379511 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 28.Sep.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 81.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN BANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
