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| #379616 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 AM 29.Sep.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 800 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...CENTER RELOCATED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 81.4W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREAS TODAY. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
