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| #379677 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 29.Sep.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...CIRCULATION OF NICOLE BECOMING POORLY DEFINED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 80.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NICOLE IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED. AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. NICOLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE NICOLE IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
