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| #37968 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 06.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. THE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING HOWEVER...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE ARE SOME 35 KT WINDS IN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH I HAVE NO DVORAK ESTIMATES HIGHER THAN 25 KT...AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE DEPRESSION IS GOING TO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PARTLY DUE THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION...AND PARTLY TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.0N 43.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.6N 44.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 50.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 22.8N 53.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 56.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.0N 58.0W 50 KT |
