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| #37975 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 06.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 HARVEY'S CIRCULATION TOOK A SHARP LEFT HOOK LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEVER FULLY CONNECTED WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST. THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN HAS A SHEARED APPEARANCE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO FIND NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...HARVEY APPEARS TO BE RESUMING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS 030/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOOK UP WITH HARVEY IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND INDUCE SOME ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD HARVEY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES AND CUT OFF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLOWER AFTER 96 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 33.7N 56.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 34.4N 55.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 35.9N 54.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 37.6N 52.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1800Z 39.3N 50.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z 43.5N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1800Z 44.0N 31.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
