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| #38092 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 07.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY IS UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS OVERCAST...A RECENT AQUA SATELLITE OVERPASS SHOWS THE STORM IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE CONVECTION IN A CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THESE ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 040/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING HARVEY... WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATER. THAT BEING SAID...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SLOWER TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...AND SEVERAL OF THEM SUGGEST THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A CUT-OFF EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS STILL FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE LARGE-SCALE OR CONSENSUS MODELS. INCREASING SHEAR AND COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSED BY THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24-36 HR. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 120 HR...AND THERE IS A POSSIBLY THAT IT RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM A WEAKENING TREND TO STEADY INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 35.4N 54.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 36.4N 53.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 37.7N 52.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 38.9N 50.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0600Z 39.9N 48.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 41.0N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 42.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 43.0N 33.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
