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| #38130 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 07.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY'S CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK DATA-T CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED RAIN ENHANCED 50KT WINDS IN THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL NON-FLAGGED 40 KT AND 45 KT WINDS. BOTH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/10. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THEREAFTER. WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND SST'S BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HARVEY TO SLOW DOWN ONCE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLOWER...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 35.8N 53.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.9N 52.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.1N 50.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.3N 48.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 40.2N 46.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 42.0N 38.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 42.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
