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| #38268 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 07.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A SMALL BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH IRENE DOES NOT LOOK MUCH LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2115 UTC SHOWED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE CIRCULATION. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS...ASSUMING IRENE SURVIVES...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND...PERHAPS...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. IRENE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.5N 47.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.2N 49.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 50.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.6N 52.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 59.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 50 KT |
