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| #382818 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 12.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 A 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH AN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0047 UTC SSMIS PASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS INSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0... RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT. PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8. THE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL GET. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 19.9N 86.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 20.9N 86.1W 85 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 21.8N 85.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 22.1N 84.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 55 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 81.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
