Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #382932 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 PM 13.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ...PAULA HESITATES...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 85.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...- * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT PAULA MIGHT HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT CHECKED THE ENTIRE HURRICANE YET. NEVERTHELESS...PAULA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG |
