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| #38310 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 AM 08.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/12...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE LAST FEW SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. HARVEY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THEN SLOW AND TURN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...A LITTLE FASTER IN THE FIRST 72 HR AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER. HARVEY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ARE RE-INTENSIFYING HARVEY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 38.9N 50.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 39.9N 48.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 40.9N 46.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0600Z 42.1N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 42.5N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 42.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
