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| #383118 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 14.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN REPORTING HOURLY FIXES AND PLENTY OF WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN WESTERN CUBA. BASED ON SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 60 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS NOT COMPLETELY SHEARED YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF THE CUBAN TERRAIN AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS PAULA WEAKENS FURTHER...AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS...BUT BY THEN PAULA IS FORECAST TO JUST BE A REMNANT LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 22.8N 84.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 80.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
