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| #3832 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 04.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 WE GAVE THE DEPRESSION THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THIS MORNING WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULDN'T CLOSE OFF A CENTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST AND LESS CONCENTRATED...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE SYSTEM HAS RE-DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE LACK OF A CENTER THIS MORNING AND THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS SINCE THEN... ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE GFDL...WHICH EARLIER STRENGTHENED THE DEPRESSION AND TOOK IT NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH...NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST AND DISSIPATES IT. THE GFS ALSO NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE IF IT MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING RAINFALL TO HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 13.5N 63.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
