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| #383213 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 PM 14.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 ...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. PAULA PASSED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA THIS EVENING AROUND 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED IN HAVANA DURING THE PAST HOUR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE |
