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| #384855 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 23.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.9N 83.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 89.6W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 94.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
