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| #385373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 25.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010 A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER... HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE GULF...IT SHOULD BE A VERY WEAK CYCLONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE REINTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICHARD BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO BUT THIS EVENT COULD VERY WELL OCCUR SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 18.1N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.8N 92.3W 25 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 93.4W 25 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 27/0600Z 21.2N 94.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
