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| #386329 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:01 PM 29.Oct.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 ...TOMAS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 57.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * GRENADA * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BROWN |
