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| #386463 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 30.Oct.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 ...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO * GRENADA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A NOW CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
