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| #386536 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:04 PM 30.Oct.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 600 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 ...OBSERVATIONS FROM ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 61.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * TOBAGO * GRENADA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA AND ARE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TOMAS MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ON THE OTHER ISLANDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN |
