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| #387729 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 04.Nov.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 ...TOMAS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 75.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA OR WESTERN HAITI TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. RECENT REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
