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| #388214 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 PM 06.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 800 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010 DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT EAST OF THE CENTER AND A MAXIMUM SFMR WIND OF 64 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TOMAS IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13 KT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...OR NORTH...THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0000Z 25.0N 69.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 25.7N 69.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 68.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 26.0N 67.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.9W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 28.5N 59.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 10/1800Z 31.5N 55.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN |
