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| #388250 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 06.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010 BEFORE EXITING TOMAS...THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 75 KT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 61 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT. WHILE THE INITIAL SHEAR VALUES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS ARE 15-20 KT...TOMAS OBVIOUSLY HAS NOT YET FELT THE EFFECTS OF THIS SHEAR IN THE INNER CORE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES CLOUD TRACK WINDS SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR INCHING CLOSER TO TOMAS...AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING...REDUCING TOMAS TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/9. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE SLOWING TOMAS EVEN FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF TOMAS IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL BY THAT TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE UKMET MAINTAINS TOMAS AS A DEEPER CYCLONE AND TAKES IT FARTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE MERGING IT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER... THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT TOMAS SHOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY REMAINING A DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.2N 69.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 25.8N 69.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 26.1N 68.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 26.5N 66.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 27.4N 63.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 31.0N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
