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| #3883 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 05.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2004 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM...BUT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT T5.5 AT 12Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT. ALEX SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND HELP INVIGORATE A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS. ALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 065/30. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE AN ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNUSUALLY WELL-CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 41.7N 57.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 44.0N 51.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 46.5N 42.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 47.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 07/1200Z 47.0N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
