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| #3908 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 05.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004 THE EYE OF ALEX IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/5.5. USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF WEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS 90 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER 17C WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 065/39. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY WELL-CLUSTERED...THE MODELS APPEAR TO ALREADY BE BEHIND THE CYCLONE AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 43.6N 52.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 45.8N 45.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 47.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 07/0600Z 47.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
