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| #39294 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 13.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTED OF A BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. SINCE THEN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES SHOW A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...IRENE HAS BEEN A PECULIAR CYCLONE THAT HAS NEVER HAD A PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THE INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT 60 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS IRENE LATER TODAY. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO SURPRISES. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE...SHIPS IS NOT SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE SAME GOES FOR THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS UNTIL IRENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES...PROBABLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT IT IS ONLY AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.7N 69.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.8N 70.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 69.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 68.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 39.6N 64.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1200Z 45.1N 49.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
