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| #39457 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 14.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 IRENE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD AS ALMOST -80C. HOWEVER... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS NOT STRENGTHENING... AND IN FACT IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 62 KT... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. ALSO... DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 TO 3.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT. THE STORM COULD STILL REGAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER INDICATES IT REACHING HURRICANE STATUS. THIS FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT WHILE IRENE SLID A LITTLE TO THE WEST LATE LAST NIGHT... IT HAS NOW ESTABLISHED A NEARLY DUE NORTH MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. IRENE IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AND THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE BIT FASTER. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IRENE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND THEN MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 32.6N 70.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 34.1N 69.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 37.7N 65.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 38.9N 62.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 41.5N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/0600Z 47.5N 46.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
