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| #39784 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 15.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 IRENE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ALTHOUGH NO EYE WAS EVIDENT ON THE GEOSYNCHRONOUS IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT MAY APPEAR SOON. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 75 KNOTS...AND THAT IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS RATHER CLOSE TO A BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES...JUST TO ITS NORTH...AND SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SHEAR. HOWEVER IRENE HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT MORE EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY DELAY SLIGHTLY THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. HENCE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...IRENE SHOULD HAVE PASSED THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 96 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 48-72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. IRENE WILL SOON BE ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SHOULD IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS BE MAINTAINED AS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THEY WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 36.5N 67.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 37.4N 65.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 38.5N 62.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 56.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/1200Z 49.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1200Z 57.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
