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| #4061 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 09.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004 ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR AS THE CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL OUTPUT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1745Z 11.7N 61.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 12.0N 63.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.0N 66.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.0N 70.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.0N 73.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 81.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 21.5N 85.0W 70 KT |
