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| #4070 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 09.Aug.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004 2100Z MON AUG 09 2004 INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 62.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 62.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.5N 64.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.3N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.3N 74.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 22.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH |
