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| #4091 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 09.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN 8 MILE WIDE CLOSED EYEWALL AT 22Z ALONG WITH 56 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED SOME AND EXPANDED TO 20 MILES. BASED ON THIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45 KT. IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO REPORT A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH WINDS LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND TO 77 AND 83 KT RESPECTIVELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. IN CONTRAST...OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH SUCH DIVERGENT GUIDANCE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE STORM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON RECON FIXES AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05. THE ONLY GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE ARE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS AND THE GFS ONLY TRACKS THE STORM TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.4N 89.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 24.1N 89.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 25.3N 90.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 26.6N 89.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 27.7N 88.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 31.0N 84.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/0000Z 35.0N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
