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| #41246 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 22.Aug.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY SHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A SEASON'S 11TH STORM ON RECORD. RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN FOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND THE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE DELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A PATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.6N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 96.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
