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| #41327 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 22.Aug.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER... FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS 280/7. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL. JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.8N 96.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
