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| #41341 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 23.Aug.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 DATA FROM THE RADAR AT ALVARADO MEXICO INDICATED THAT JOSE BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH AN EYE FORMING. JUST HOW STRONG THE STORM GOT BEFORE LANDFALL IS UNKNOWN...AS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE EYE STARTED TO FORM TRMM DATA SHOWED THE CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED JOSE WELL SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE LANDFALL...BOTH THE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE WEAKENED...AND JOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. JOSE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS JOSE OR ITS REMNANTS TRAVERSE MEXICO. THE COASTAL WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.8N 97.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 98.3W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 99.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
